# discussion read the case study quot the estimating problem quot and then answer the questions to the end

THE ESTIMATING PROBLEM:

Barbara was now still confused and decided to talk to Peter, the employee that was assigned to do this task. Barbara had worked with Peter on previous projects. Peter was a grade 9 employee and considered to be an expert in this work package. As part of the discussions with Barbara, Peter made the following comments:

I have seen estimating data bases that include this type of work package and they all estimate the work package at about 14 weeks. I do not understand why our estimating group prefers to use the three point estimate.

â€œDoes the typical data base account for project complexity when considering the estimates?â€ asked Barbara. Peter responded:

Some data bases have techniques for considering complexity, but mostly they just assume an average complexity level. When complexity is important, as it is in our project, analogy estimating would be better. Using analogy estimating and comparing the complexity of the work package on this project to the similar works packages I have completed, I would say that 16â€“17 weeks is closer to reality, and letâ€™s hope I do not get removed from the project to put out a fire somewhere else in the company. That would be terrible. It is impossible for me to get it done in 12 weeks. And adding more people to this work package will not shorten the schedule. It may even make it worse.

Barbara then asked Peter one more question:

Peter, you are a grade 9 and considered as the subject matter expert. If a grade 7 had been assigned, as the estimating group had said, how long would it have taken the grade 7 to do the job?

â€œProbably about 20 weeks or so,â€ responded Peter.

QUESTIONS

1. How many different estimating techniques were discussed in the case?

2. If each estimate is different, how does a project manager decide that one estimate is better than another?

3. If you were the project manager, which estimate would you use?