Ahurastan

Ahurastan is a fictitious nation that is in the middle of a conflict-ridden region in the Middle East. The country broke away from Iran, and it has similar communities as those found in Azerbaijan. The main dispute in the area stems from the ownership of the oil in the region with others claiming it belongs to Azerbaijan while another faction argues it is situated in the Caspian region. This country is a huge supporter of the SAPP and SAPA, which are the two opposition factions in Azerbaijan. This document will provide an analysis of Ahurastan and its neighbors in a bid to understand the state of the region and the next steps for the US government.

Strategic Estimate

This section of the paper will delve into the status of Ahurastan as an individual nation and as a nation in the middle of the conflict. The analysis of elements such as demography and international relationship will help in comprehending this nation more. This will also need an emphasis on the relationship with its neighbors such as Azerbaijan and its opinion and contribution to the existing conflict.

Regional analysis

Population

From reports and analysis, the total population in Ahurastan is approximately thirty million people. These people broke away from countries such as Azerbaijan and Iran due to various factors such as misallocation of resources among other mistreatments. However, the greatest desire for the breakaway stems from the belief that they are capable of forming a government of their own.

Demography

Ahurastan is composed of several ethnic groups that broke away from established countries such as Iran. These ethnic communities include Altaic, Indo-European, and Hamito-Semitic groups. The most populous group in the country is the Altaic, whose major ethnicity is the Kurds. The Kurds make up the largest population in the country with a percentage of nine percent of the overall population. This implies that their numbers are approximately three million people. Majority of the people in Ahurastan are modern-day Islamists that is Shi’a Islam. However, there are others who still practice ancient forms of Islam such as Sunni beliefs. Other smaller ethnic groups such as Arabs, Armenians, Jews, and Assyrians make up the other percentage of Ahurastans. However, they are mainly located in cities in the country, unlike the Kurds who are dispersed in many places including the rural areas.

History of Ahurastan

Ahurastan has a short history in that it broke away from Iran recently after the actions of its leadership. Indeed, the reformists in Iran during the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who ruled the country using dictatorship, decided to form another state that would offer democracy to its citizenry. After the separation, the country had to deal with the attacks from the mainland Iraq and afterward in 2017 held an election in which Dilenchy won.

Religions

The main religion in the country is Islam although there are other religions such as Zoroastrianism, Jewish, and Christianity. A large percentage of the Muslims are Shia Muslims while a small percentage comprise of the Sunni Muslims.

Economy

The state of Ahurastan’s economy is dire because small or no changes have been made since its separation from Iran. The country depends on oil imports, which have driven the economy down through accruing debts. Additionally, the private sector, which is the main driver of the economy in some countries, is still very small implying that the economy is still at a very low state. The country was initially agricultural, and now it is trying to better the sector by industrializing it.

Key Individuals

The president is the highest seat in Ahurastan with the current president being Dilenchy. The other powerful seat in the land is the Council of Leaders, which is assigned the duty of appointing judicial officers and the Commander-in-chief.

Government

Ahurastan has a Constitution, which serves as the most powerful law in the land. This document determines the order of the land in regards to the economy, politics, and society. All the citizens in the country including women elect the president through a majority vote.

Communications

The country uses communication devices especially in military operations. These devices include microwave and radio transmissions that also include fiber optic devices.

Impact of situation on International Relations

The separation from Iran is one factor that has influenced the nation’s foreign relations because Iran still poses a major threat. Additionally, the conflict about the Caspian oil has deteriorated the relationship with its neighbors. Nonetheless, the country is building international relationships with the former Soviet Union.

Interests

Ahurastan has several interests in the region including a part of the revenue that comes from the Caspian oil. In comparison, the US has a different interest in the region, which includes brokering a peace deal in the region. Moreover, the Caspian oil is a huge interest for the US.

Objectives

The major aim of Ahurastan is to become independent as compared to US’s objective of seeing the region become peaceful.

Current U.S. Programs

The US offers military and financial support to the countries in the region especially Armenia and Azerbaijan.

COA (most likely) – The US will be able to broker a peace deal using laid-back methods rather than a military action.

COA (most dangerous) – The US may decide on military strikes, which will reduce the region to a war zone as it was in Iraq.

Degree of Interest in the Outcome – The interest of the US is huge since it is one of its international duties as a superpower.

Develop Third Option and Initial Screening

General Description:

The situation in the region is deteriorating because of cross-border conflicts especially between Azerbaijan, Iran, and Ahurastan. The main component that brings about these conflicts in this Caspian region is the Oil and the control of boundaries. Azerbaijan has a good relationship with Azerbaijan and a broken one with Iran and Ahurastan. The relationship of Ahurastan with the US is slowly degrading because of Ahurastan’s ties with the former Soviet Union. Moreover, Ahurastan supports the armies known for opposing Azerbaijan’s government.

Diplomatic:

Ahurastan has a bad diplomatic relationship with its neighbors especially Iran and Azerbaijan. This implies that it has a bad relationship with the US because the US has a strategic relationship with Azerbaijan. Additionally, Azerbaijan has begun a diplomatic relationship with Russia and the former Soviet allies. Russia has political as well as resource interest in the region and sees the relationship as beneficial.

Information:

The establishment of the program that shares the information from the three states provides a huge advantage to the US and its allies as it seeks to find a lasting solution to the crisis in the region. This program can be used to create a negative publicity between SAPA and Ahurastan capable of watering down the relationship between the two factions.  At the same time, the media can be used to portray the US in good light so that the countries and the residents of these countries can embrace the interventions from the US.

Military:

The US has a decision to make on the proper actions to take in this region because all actions have accompanying consequences. Ahurastan spends a considerable amount of its resources on its military operations. The purpose for the enhancement of the military is to make the country a force to reckon with in the region. Moreover, the country seeks to secure its borders in its quest for emancipation from Iran. Additionally, the country has a good cyber security system inherited from the mainland. In comparison, its neighbor spends huge amounts in its military as it ensures that the rebels in the form of SAPA do not take over the country. The US has the option of providing military help to Azerbaijan to help it eliminate military threats in the country. If the US decides on military action against Ahurastan, then it should put into consideration the military might of this young nation and the casualties of the resulting warfare.

Economic:

Ahurastan has a weak economic policy and hence a weak GDP and GDP growth. This is the case with the other countries in the region such as Iran and Azerbaijan. The oil present in the country has brought strife instead of riches in this region. The US has the option of aiding all these countries financially to reduce the conflicts in the region. Ahurastan, Iran, and Azerbaijan can be granted financial aid as long as the US gets to control a small percentage of the oil reserves.

Risks:

Since the US has been accused of oil greed in the past, any emphasis on the region may seem like an advance on the oil reserves. This will spoil the image of the US internationally because the intervention will be looked at as benefiting the US more than the countries involved. Additionally, any military strike to nations such as Ahurastan will anger nations such as Russia and may lead to a bigger war. A choice of a military strike will also result in the loss of innocent lives meaning that it will bring more damage to the image of the US internationally.

Mitigation Strategies:

Military strikes seem like the easiest choice for the US to reduce the interference of Ahurastan on Azerbaijan. However, the risks involved and the number of innocent casualties will spoil the USs image internationally. This leaves the US with the option of using information and financial aid to curb the effects of the conflict in the region. The use of information can backfire on the US because the parties targeted may realize the tactic and move to quell it. This may also improve their relationship leading to an increase in the amounts of threats to the Azerbaijan community. This may also lead to an enhancement of the conflict that already exists in the region. Another consequence, which may come up is the image of the US on the eyes of Ahurastan and the SAPA. This will destroy any chances of reaching a compromise in the future. This implies that financial assistance remains as the only choice for the US government concerning this agenda.

Adequate: Military aid to Azerbaijan without any other assistance or intervention such as military strikes are enough to avert some of the dangers brought about by the conflict.

Feasible: The use of information systems to spread propaganda may help to avert future conflicts. However, it may not stay for long.

Acceptable: Advancing financial aid to its allies in the region so that they can be able to fight off insurgence is acceptable.

Distinguishable: Advancing financial aid to all the countries in the region will enable the US to regulate the activities in the region.

Complete: A combination of information and financial aid will deliver impeccable results concerning the conflict. The US can be portrayed positively using the media in the region. The credibility of this information can be enhanced by the US choosing to assist all these countries financially.

CONGRESSIONAL BACKGROUND PAPER

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ECJ5                                                                                        Action Officer’s GRADE, NAME

APPROVED BY: ____________                                            DATE

STRATEGIC ESTIMATE OF THE CAUCASUS REGION

Ahurastan is a young country that is not yet identified internationally, but it poses a threat to established nations such as Azerbaijan.

The country is sparsely populated as compared to its neighbors, with the Kurds making up a large percentage of the ethnic grouping.

The country is largely Islam, and its official religion is Shia Islam. A negligible percentage of the people attend other religions.

The economy of the country is pitiable as the country depends on imported oil and gas. However, the agricultural sector is growing at a faster rate.

The country has a conflict with Iran because of its separation from the mainland. This conflict has made the Ahurastan improve its military in a bid to defend its independence.

It also has a longstanding conflict with Azerbaijan over the ownership of the oil reservoirs with Ahurastan claiming that it owns part of the wells.

The country provides support to the SAPA rebels claiming that they have a stake in the leadership of Azerbaijan.

The US has a choice to make concerning the conflict in this region since it has several interests in it.

First, the US has to make an evaluation of the status of the region before deciding on a particular route to take.

The US has three choices to make, and these include the use of information, a military strike on Ahurastan and advancement of financial aid to the region.

DISCUSSION/BACKGROUND

The Caucasus region is under several challenges including a poor economy and unending conflicts. The youngest country in the region is posing serious threats to the stability of the region, first through the conflict with Iran because of the boundaries. Secondly, the country supports opposition groups in Azerbaijan leading to instability in the country. This implies that measures have to be taken to reduce the influence of this small nation in the region. However, this is going to be a hard task for the US, as it has to consider the implications of any of its moves. The fact that the region has oil reserves becomes a tricky situation for the US as its past with Iraq still poses a threat to its real intention in the region. Moreover, Ahurastan has some might in its military and has an ally in the Soviet Union implying that any military strike will lead to a full-blown war.

  1. CURRENT STATUS

The US has allies in the region in Azerbaijan and Armenia meaning that any operation has a place for proper planning and support. Azerbaijan and Armenia have been receiving financial aid from the US for sometimes implying that their economies are better than other nations in the region. This also implies that their military might is improving. However, Ahurastan poses a military threat because of its partners and allies. Moreover, the country has a well-coordinated intelligence system that the US needs to be aware of before any decision is made. However, the economy of Ahurastan is in shambles implying that its military might be able to last only for a few battles.

  1. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS.

The chance of the US winning a battle in this region is very high because of the state of politics and economy in the region. However, the consequences of such action could be detrimental to its allies in the region and the US. This implies that any course of action decided upon by the US should consider all the avenues and implications. The most viable course of action is to use diplomacy to bring the countries together. Moreover, the US could use propaganda and financial aid to convince the leaders of these nations to work together.